Minority Representation Through the Lens of Census Data

By: Azam Mairaj

According to the records of the Ministry of Statistics, the total minority population in West Pakistan was 970,476 in the 1951 census, out of which 369,831 were Scheduled Castes. They constituted 38% of the total minority population. In the 1961 census, the total minority population was 1,214,135, with the Scheduled Caste population recorded at 418,011, making up 34% of the total minority population. By the 1972 census, Pakistan’s total minority population had increased to 2,027,224, with Scheduled Castes accounting for 603,359, or 30% of the total minority population.

However, in 1981, the category for Scheduled Castes was suddenly removed from the records of the Ministry of Statistics. In the first three censuses, the Scheduled Caste Hindu population remained, on average, 34% of the total minority population. When the Scheduled Caste category was reintroduced in the 1998 census after 26 years, their proportion had drastically dropped to only 7% of the total minority population. In the subsequent two censuses of 2017 and 2023, this proportion increased to 11% and 15%, respectively.

Based on these figures, the total minority population today is 8,771,380, out of which only 1,349,487 are recorded as Scheduled Castes. If their proportion had remained consistent with the first three censuses at 34%, they should have been 2,982,269. Given their educational, economic, and social disadvantages, their population growth rate should be higher than that of other religious and social groups. However, their rate of obtaining identity cards and registering with government institutions remains the lowest among social groups. If this factor were accounted for, their actual population should be at least 15-20% higher than 3 million.

Unfortunately, no official statistics are available to confirm this. However, if the mistake made in 1981 is corrected, 1,642,762 individuals who were “abducted” from the Ministry of Statistics’ records in that year could be “recovered.” The question remains: who will take responsibility for this correction?

In the first two National Assemblies of Pakistan, out of 27 minority members, 20 were from the Scheduled Castes. This was during the time when the East Pakistan Hindu Council, under the leadership of Jogendra Nath Mandal, was active, and before he migrated. His influence had ensured that Pakistan’s national politics remained incomplete without the Scheduled Castes. However, after the separation of East Pakistan and the implementation of separate electorates in 1985, the responsibility for the rights of Scheduled Castes fell into the hands of Scheduled Caste social and political activists in Sindh. Since then, the results have not been the same as they were until 1970, even though those were also not very encouraging, as lamented by Jogendra Nath Mandal in his resignation letter.

Since 1985, nine Scheduled Caste representatives have become MNAs (Members of the National Assembly), four have been elected as senators, and many have served as MPAs (Members of Provincial Assemblies) in Sindh and Punjab. However, whether due to a lack of capability or intent, no serious efforts have been made on any platform to raise their voices against the massive statistical “genocide” of 1981.

Since the implementation of the current minority electoral system in 2002, the entire focus of minority politicians has shifted towards securing positions in party priority lists rather than advocating for their community’s rights. As for their social activists, they seem to be engaged in a personal struggle for survival and progress, aligning themselves with forums that serve their own interests. The voices of sincere and well-meaning social workers do not even reach Karachi, let alone Islamabad, as they remain confined to the deserts of Thar.

A similar statistical “genocide” was committed against Christians in 2017 when the Minister of Statistics was a Christian, the Chairman of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Statistics was a caste Hindu, and Nawaz Sharif was the Prime Minister. It is worth noting that when the Scheduled Caste Hindus were statistically erased in 1981, General Zia-ul-Haq was the President and Martial Law Administrator.

Between 1951 and 1998, the Christian population as a percentage of the total minority population was as follows:

1951: 45%

1961: 48%

1972: 45%

1981: 49%

1998: 44%

This averages to 46%. However, in the 2017 census, when the total minority population was 7,331,246, the Christian proportion suddenly dropped to 36%, reducing their population to26,42,048. Based on previous census trends, their population should have been at least 3,372,373. This means that in just one census, 730,325 Christians were statistically erased.

In the 2023 census, the total minority population is 8,771,380, with Christians recorded at 38%, making up 3,300,788 individuals. However, based on the previous 46% average, their population should have been at least 4,034,834. These estimates are derived conservatively from government data, but if we factor in natural population growth rates over the seven censuses, the actual number of Scheduled Castes and Christians should be even higher.

It is remarkable that despite having a significant number of social, political, and religious leaders, the Christian community has never seriously raised this issue on any appropriate forum.

Now, the question arises: who benefited from this statistical erasure of two of Pakistan’s most marginalized communities? While it is unclear what the motives of the governments at the time were, the biggest beneficiary of this manipulation has been the caste Hindu community.

In the first three censuses, caste Hindus made up 16%, 17%, and 15% of the total minority population. However, after the statistical removal of Scheduled Castes, their proportion suddenly jumped to 47% of the total minority population and remained at 43%, 49%, and 44% in the subsequent censuses.

As of the 2023 census, their recorded population stands at 3,867,729, whereas, based on previous census trends, they should have been 1,403,420. This numerical advantage has significantly increased their representation in the Senate, National Assembly, and Provincial Assemblies.

This situation is not only an alarming issue for the Christian and Scheduled Caste communities, whose religious, political, and social leaders have failed to take any serious action, but it also highlights the effectiveness of caste Hindu leaders in strategically utilizing their financial resources to secure numerical dominance for their community.

While their efforts to advance their community’s collective interests deserve recognition, the attitude of the state and successive governments in this matter remains highly concerning.