By: Saima Sammar
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecasted the monsoon season to arrive between June 27, 2023, and July 4, 2024, predicting above-average rainfall for the southern regions of Sindh and Karachi. This long-term forecast may change as the season progresses. Dust storms and thunderstorms are expected in northern and northeastern Punjab.
Typically, the monsoon season in Pakistan spans from mid-July to late September, bringing heavy rains to the Upper and Lower Indus Plain. A UN official has warned that the monsoon could affect approximately 200,000 people due to heavier than usual rains. Reflecting on the 2022 monsoon, devastating floods resulted in approximately 1,800 deaths and the destruction of 2 million homes.
Since early May, increased temperatures have accelerated the melting of northern glaciers, contributing to higher moisture levels in the air and potentially more intense monsoon rains. Despite contributing less than 1% to global carbon emissions, Pakistan is disproportionately suffering from global climate disasters. This year, Pakistan experienced its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual monthly rainfall.
In late May, weather forecasters advised people to stay indoors due to a heat wave, which led to the abrupt closure of schools. The second week of June 2024 recorded some of the highest temperatures yet.
As pre-monsoon rains begin in the last two weeks of June, the severity is expected to increase with the onset of the monsoon in July. Lahore, which was heavily submerged in July 2023, is likely to face similar challenges this year. Poor infrastructure and inadequate preparations have left the city vulnerable, with roads breaking and remaining flooded for days, causing severe traffic disruptions.
Dr. Tayyab Shah, Head of the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) Technical Wing, has stated that more than usual rainfall and higher temperatures are expected during the monsoon season. Sindh is likely to be severely affected by heavy rains. Balochistan is also expected to receive above-average rainfall, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Kashmir are forecasted to receive normal rainfall. However, temperatures are expected to be higher than normal in Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where there are more glaciers.
Severe flooding is also likely in the rivers Jhelum, Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi, with a higher risk of flash flooding in the Koh Suleiman and Koh Kirthar ranges. Areas like Qambar, Shahdadkot, Dadu, and Lasbela could face flooding due to heavy rains. Jhal Magsi, Dera Murad Jamali, Sanghar, Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Badin, Kashmore, and Ghotki are also at risk. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, increased water flow in the Panjkora and Swat rivers could raise the flood risk in Nowshera and Khairabad.
Authorities are urging the public to heed these warnings and take necessary precautions.